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Favourite-longshot bias is an observed phenomenon where on average, bettors tend to overvalue "long shots" and...
Favourite-longshot bias is an observed phenomenon where on average, bettors tend to overvalue "long shots" and undervalue favourites.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias
"Forecasting Elections Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases" D Rothschild - Public Opinion Quarterly, 2009 - AAPOR
http://assets.wharton.upenn.edu/~rothscdm/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf
claims that in in 2008 presidential elections, intrade.com was slightly less accurate then 538.com, but slightly more accurate when debiased, removing favourite-longshot bias, parameters of which have to be determined on a case-by-case basis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias
Labels: Oleg Zabluda
- posted by Oleg Zabluda @ 10:39 AM | permalink | | | technorati | bloglines | feedster
