Oleg Zabluda's blog: July 22, 2018

Oleg Zabluda's blog

Sunday, July 22, 2018

How The Fracking Revolution Broke OPEC's Hold On Oil Prices
How The Fracking Revolution Broke OPEC's Hold On Oil Prices
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global oil consumption rose to a new record high in 2018 [...] Over the past decade, global oil consumption has increased by 11.1 million barrels per day [...] Asia Pacific region was the source of 77% of the world's demand growth over that time.
[...]
A decade ago, in the summer of 2008, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was racing toward $150 a barrel. Over the previous three years, and despite strong demand growth, the world had only increased oil production by 1.2 million BPD, and it essentially all came from OPEC.

While it is still true that OPEC still produced 42.6% of the world's oil in 2017, the majority of new oil production since 2008 has come from the U.S.

Of the 10.3 million BPD of new oil production since 2008, the U.S. supplied 6.2 million BPD (60%). The world's two other major oil-producing countries, Saudi Arabia and Russia, saw their production increase by 1.7 million BPD and 1.2 million BPD respectively since 2008. OPEC overall increased its production by 3.6 million BPD since 2008
[...]
Also notable is that Canada and Mexico are major oil producers [...] Overall, North America supplied 20 million BPD of the world's oil in 2017 (22%). This was ahead of every other region of the world except for the Middle East, which produced 31.6 million BPD, or 34.1% of the world's total.

According to the BP Statistical Review, the U.S. now leads both Saudi Arabia and Russia in crude oil production.
"""
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/07/22/how-the-fracking-revolution-broke-opecs-hold-on-oil-prices/#261dd92d48ef
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/07/22/how-the-fracking-revolution-broke-opecs-hold-on-oil-prices/

Labels: Oleg Zabluda

All you need to know about Russians.
All you need to know about Russians.

Медведь крышевал мужика, но по факту работал. Вместо того чтобы или делать бизнес нормально, или вломить медведю пиздюлей, мужик наебал медведя дважды, и медведь запретил мужику в лес ходить, и уж тем более сеять.

Вершки и корешки
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ju5gQaBEsH8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ju5gQaBEsH8

Labels: Oleg Zabluda

Saudi Aramco’s $2 Trillion Zombie IPO
Saudi Aramco’s $2 Trillion Zombie IPO
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In early 2016, Mohammed bin Salman said he planned to sell shares in the kingdom’s crown jewel: Saudi Aramco, the giant energy company that produces 10 percent of the world’s oil and finances the Saudi state. The initial public offering—planned for 2018—would be the deal to end all deals, raising more than $100 billion for a new sovereign wealth fund, creating the world’s most valuable listed company, and funneling hundreds of millions of dollars in fees to Wall Street’s elite banks. MBS, as the 32-year-old crown prince is known, said the company would be worth at least $2 trillion—more than double the current market valuation of Apple Inc.—and perhaps as much as $2.5 trillion.
[...]
indifference from global investors doubtful that an IPO would benefit them, has forced Riyadh to delay the sale until at least 2019. And many observers—including members of the company’s senior leadership—doubt whether it will happen at all. Aramco has become the zombie IPO. Add Donald Trump to the mix. While the U.S. president has said he’s excited about the idea of Aramco selling shares in New York, keeping the price of gasoline under control seems far more important. [...] he’s pressured Saudi Arabia to pump more oil, and cheaper crude means a lower valuation for the company.
[...]
There’s a wide gulf between MBS’s ambitious $2 trillion target—which the prince says is nonnegotiable—and the $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion that most analysts and investors see as more realistic, [...] The valuation problem has become more visible after Bloomberg News disclosed the first accountings of Aramco since its nationalization almost 40 years ago. The leaked documents included the company’s tax regime, until now secret. The accounts showed that Aramco was the world’s most profitable company, churning out $33.8 billion in net income the first six months of 2017—before taxes. Much of the cash the highly taxed company generates is channeled as royalties into the Saudi government budget.

How can investors be sure the government won’t raise taxes on the company to pay for more social or military spending, especially when the government already needs a price of about $80 a barrel to break even?
[...]
A marginal rate of 20 percent of revenue is due for oil prices up to $70 a barrel, 40 percent between $70 and $100, and 50 percent above $100. The government also widened the volume of crude covered by the royalties. Previously, the royalty was applied to exports. Now, it’s on production.
"""
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-07/saudi-aramco-s-2-trillion-zombie-ipo
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-07/saudi-aramco-s-2-trillion-zombie-ipo

Labels: Oleg Zabluda

Falsehoods programmers believe about time
Falsehoods programmers believe about time
https://infiniteundo.com/post/25509354022/more-falsehoods-programmers-believe-about-time
https://infiniteundo.com/post/25509354022/more-falsehoods-programmers-believe-about-time

Labels: Oleg Zabluda

"""
"""
SpaceX conducted their thirteenth launch of the year Sunday, with a Falcon 9 a newly-constructed booster, B1047, which was the second Block 5 core to fly, deploying the Telstar 19V communications satellite for Canada’s Telesat from the Cape, also recovered the first stage of the Falcon 9 via their Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship (ASDS), Of Course I Still Love You.

Constructed by Space Systems Loral, the satellite is based around the SSL-1300 satellite bus. It has a mass at launch of 7,080 kilograms (15,600 lb) – making it the heaviest payload that Falcon 9 has carried to geostationary transfer orbit.

243 km x 17863 km x 27.00° has a delta v to GTO of 2064.5751 m/s or it is in GTO-2065

this puts the GTO-1800 capability of Block 5 with ASDS at ~6,150kg.
"""
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/07/spacex-falcon-9-telstar-19v-launch/

Telstar 19 VANTAGE Mission
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xybp6zLaGx4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xybp6zLaGx4

Labels: Oleg Zabluda

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