Oleg Zabluda's blog
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
2016’s Election Data Hero Isn’t Nate Silver. It’s Sam Wang
2016’s Election Data Hero Isn’t Nate Silver. It’s Sam Wang
[OZ: 11.07.16 one day before the elections. Notice how the map is almost completely wrong, where it matters]

This year, Wang called the election at 8:55 PM on October 18. He promised to eat more than just his hat if Clinton loses: “It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug,” Wang tweeted to his 23,000 followers. He expects Clinton to receive at least 298 electoral votes.
The Huffington Post Washington bureau chief Ryan Grim [...] accused Silver of deliberately skewing his own data at FiveThirtyEight with what amounts to political punditry. Silver fired back on social media with some ugly language. Grim stands by the HuffPost election model. “There’s room to debate where and whether forecasting belongs in our politics and our campaigns,” Grim told me. “But if you’re gonna do it, then you shouldn’t shrink from what the numbers tell you. I’m glad that our team didn’t, even if it scared me along the way.”


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